diff --git a/.pre-commit-config.yaml b/.pre-commit-config.yaml index a52f840f..bbf19a31 100644 --- a/.pre-commit-config.yaml +++ b/.pre-commit-config.yaml @@ -8,4 +8,4 @@ repos: rev: v2.1.0 hooks: - id: flake8 - args: ["--max-line-length=100", "--ignore=F841,E203,W503"] \ No newline at end of file + args: ["--max-line-length=105", "--ignore=F841,E203,W503"] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/cps_stage1/stage1.py b/cps_stage1/stage1.py index f214059a..fba437c4 100644 --- a/cps_stage1/stage1.py +++ b/cps_stage1/stage1.py @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ def main(syr=2014): SYR = str(syr) # Start year of CPS - EYR = 2030 # Last year in our extrapolation + EYR = 2031 # Last year in our extrapolation # Read in state SOI estimates soi_estimates = pd.read_csv( diff --git a/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv b/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv index 9c4fad19..6ede41e4 100644 --- a/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv +++ b/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv @@ -1,24 +1,24 @@ -,2014,2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030 -Single,69579590,71086947,71410690,73021932,72028792,71924422,73183813,74331876,75333822,76224441,77122018,77984804,78861507,79745168,80635787,81540322,82451814,83377223,84309589,85248914 -Joint,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,57069122,56986429,57984256,58893878,59687730,60393376,61104535,61788129,62482750,63182883,63888529,64605200,65327385,66060595,66799319,67543555 -HH,22077498,22134303,21659639,21894095,22854626,22821510,23221112,23585391,23903307,24185899,24470699,24744460,25022636,25303020,25585612,25872620,26161835,26455466,26751304,27049351 -SS_return,27401498,28087514,28329015,28967603,31684352,32736570,33818929,34953351,36139836,37386604,38614191,39891101,41154310,42384637,43664287,44875433,46007115,47097695,48141692,49089784 -Dep_return,96916673,96505181,94809260,94708629,99911398,100735190,101549290,102373082,103187182,104001282,104805690,105610099,106414507,107209224,107984557,108759890,109525532,110281482,111018049,111744924 -INTS,156367939,95881223,96640233,106055367,124828526,125813644,138072890,151520533,153099849,148314990,143373763,141153339,141168975,142154093,146985863,155382821,167657704,185561833,205295467,227077521 -DIVS,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,340613295,332513764,369521998,401410718,416056096,399627802,342549032,361575289,385975762,411700688,440303748,469390743,498223036,527233620,555938562,584592563 -SCHCI,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,435503622,432281554,462216808,487656154,507850274,496985164,489417052,506913627,528306656,553333877,579222814,605336546,631337881,658238397,686150493,714999236 -SCHCL,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,63668344,64552308,73696166,77754362,80974516,79241029,78029884,80819535,84234849,88224166,92351243,96512760,100662797,104944855,109399114,113996873 -CGNS,705007630,713598090,634341278,859894631,1249696525,1110880523,1505896298,1666144532,1790225875,1756667512,1749758437,1740804840,1709361500,1706752971,1723673155,1756033005,1801999502,1855580082,1915505731,1980507434 -Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,847930940,895152437,934813188,964989846,939190461,971622079,1011282830,1054723954,1103669830,1157125625,1213632247,1274184531,1335400038,1398472570 -SCHEI,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1140431754,1129937243,1245546132,1288201242,1288201242,1245207599,1295648959,1394585117,1472532252,1580693423,1685892434,1768579025,1836370182,1887827140,1930228350,1980838976 -SCHEL,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,169401805,168032834,196514107,203242098,203242098,196464023,204427427,220037034,232324383,249386435,265981034,279036342,289737688,297851345,304529252,312526046 -SS,575126918,605152093,619856114,644989570,709246515,726500323,755946821,795975655,847794590,899095911,952065100,1010555508,1073244342,1140131602,1210354599,1284603484,1362935770,1448169580,1536106485,1629392071 -UCOMP,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,9810238,9161105,8628482,7962704,7490002,7746327,8282278,9484007,11468025,12676412,13075879,13811564,14267622,14727008,15296249,15719018 -wage1,114320683,112017897,111270085,107376379,132211870,134189618,140763057,147862371,154778773,150023032,155110303,162175321,168714464,175825210,183610449,191978723,200667095,209126825,217060681,225040264 -wage2,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,302997965,307530489,322595239,338865169,354715905,343816886,355475692,371667023,386653174,402949304,420791207,439969288,459880957,479268635,497451133,515738429 -wage3,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,440926749,447522541,469444969,493121191,516187398,500326998,517293051,540854896,562662946,586377294,612341074,640249278,669225009,697438221,723897639,750509560 -wage4,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,484073517,491314738,515382379,541375432,566698777,549286361,567912623,593780105,617722176,643757086,672261544,702900698,734711842,765685850,794734446,823950470 -wage5,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,483856372,491094344,515151189,541132582,566444567,549039962,567657869,593513747,617445079,643468309,671959981,702585391,734382265,765342379,794377945,823580863 -wage6,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1060069801,1075927308,1128632897,1185554933,1241010379,1202879031,1243668574,1300315624,1352746227,1409759925,1472181675,1539278181,1608941220,1676771021,1740384376,1804364377 -wage7,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,972132275,986674331,1035007756,1087207855,1138063023,1103094841,1140500709,1192448634,1240529884,1292814041,1350057628,1411588179,1475472358,1537675374,1596011716,1654684291 -wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4440532019,4648242075,4505419954,4658198425,4870371673,5066752090,5280298627,5514101187,5765413189,6026338219,6280396800,6518662551,6758301592 +,2014,2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031 +Single,69579590,71086947,71410690,73021932,72028792,71924422,73183813,74331876,75333822,76224441,77122018,77984804,78861507,79745168,80635787,81540322,82451814,83377223,84309589,85248914,86209112 +Joint,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,57069122,56986429,57984256,58893878,59687730,60393376,61104535,61788129,62482750,63182883,63888529,64605200,65327385,66060595,66799319,67543555,68304329 +HH,22077498,22134303,21659639,21894095,22854626,22821510,23221112,23585391,23903307,24185899,24470699,24744460,25022636,25303020,25585612,25872620,26161835,26455466,26751304,27049351,27354020 +SS_return,27401498,28087514,28329015,28967603,31684352,32736570,33818929,34953351,36139836,37386604,38614191,39891101,41154310,42384637,43664287,44875433,46007115,47097695,48141692,49089784,49843325 +Dep_return,96916673,96505181,94809260,94708629,99911398,100735190,101549290,102373082,103187182,104001282,104805690,105610099,106414507,107209224,107984557,108759890,109525532,110281482,111018049,111744924,112452416 +INTS,156367939,95881223,96640233,106055367,124828526,125813644,138072890,143655226,146798221,143373763,136337206,132381097,133538220,135633550,142779565,155961382,171410535,189127022,206718415,226311318,245919858 +DIVS,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,340613295,332513764,369521998,415419340,410732819,401436188,428332744,459890350,480699522,498630560,515211675,530315517,546769281,566254002,589151733,615589825,644549468 +SCHCI,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,435503622,432281554,462216808,485970189,506464036,507475616,560227603,562438091,582894472,609794988,637220027,663708418,689372560,715898417,741824820,768275745,796937159 +SCHCL,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,63668344,64552308,73696166,77478841,80750655,80911375,89320510,89670652,92936725,97224523,101592681,105823079,109909976,114140373,118278930,122497848,127066907 +CGNS,705007630,713598090,634341278,859894631,1249696525,1110880523,1505896298,1631599158,1805454040,1662689995,2059679791,2087175089,1929182879,1850927032,1823784238,1820118198,1837390885,1872641267,1920017780,1975501880,2039305071 +Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,851446024,896810495,931961328,988401627,1005114854,1022690270,1061621475,1106256401,1155732856,1208392783,1260920066,1318355200,1376984137,1438332288,1506246350 +SCHEI,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1140431754,1129937243,1245546132,1321292805,1325778362,1199844229,1356077031,1378081651,1473632483,1584501915,1685553901,1751906294,1807764176,1860659897,1908562263,1956972427,2009275716 +SCHEL,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,169401805,168032834,196514107,208467561,209168741,189301968,213960139,217432651,232508026,249987447,265930950,276398569,285213406,293560790,301123520,308753028,317000243 +SS,575126918,605152093,619856114,644989570,709246515,726500323,755946821,795975655,847794590,899095911,952065100,1010555508,1073244342,1140131602,1210354599,1284603484,1362935770,1448169580,1536106485,1629392071,1728256389 +UCOMP,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,9810238,9161105,8628482,7962704,7490002,7746327,66767543,11068559,10216363,9960038,9417429,9151118,9347523,9880145,10459372,11185070,12559901 +wage1,114320683,112017897,111270085,107376379,132211870,134189618,140763057,147793779,154687316,155144599,162735492,170189201,177414268,185268099,193430596,201364451,208760999,216306164,223908490,231579408,239753336 +wage2,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,302997965,307530489,322595239,338707971,354506309,355554291,372950802,390032918,406591043,424590144,443296633,461479131,478430249,495721962,513144672,530724580,549457269 +wage3,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,440926749,447522541,469444969,492892435,515882390,517407429,542723068,567581195,591676803,617869339,645091275,671550693,696218190,721381325,746735090,772317610,799577673 +wage4,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,484073517,491314738,515382379,541124292,566363922,568038193,595831087,623121699,649575176,678330776,708216508,737265105,764346433,791971900,819806650,847892541,877820130 +wage5,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,483856372,491094344,515151189,540881554,566109863,567783383,595563809,622842179,649283790,678026490,707898816,736934382,764003563,791616637,819438902,847512194,877426358 +wage6,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1060069801,1075927308,1128632897,1185004962,1240277084,1243943559,1304807057,1364570612,1422500928,1485472649,1550919241,1614532596,1673837841,1734334691,1795289850,1856794981,1922333235 +wage7,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,972132275,986674331,1035007756,1086703506,1137390558,1140752884,1196567482,1251373383,1304498121,1362246056,1422263561,1480599904,1534985514,1590463880,1646362536,1702765541,1762867104 +wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4438472084,4645495496,4659228392,4887194471,5111040680,5328020442,5563882936,5809015135,6047280886,6269410483,6496003272,6724312673,6954682009,7200157530 diff --git a/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz b/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz index fd2f5183..835b76cd 100644 Binary files a/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz and b/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz differ diff --git a/cps_stage2/solver.jl b/cps_stage2/solver.jl index 2da28e54..bc176dc7 100644 --- a/cps_stage2/solver.jl +++ b/cps_stage2/solver.jl @@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ function Solve_func(year, tol) end -year_list = [x for x in 2014:2030] +year_list = [x for x in 2014:2031] tol = 0.70 # Run solver function for all years and tolerances (in order) diff --git a/cps_stage2/stage2.py b/cps_stage2/stage2.py index 90c9838b..83b4a754 100644 --- a/cps_stage2/stage2.py +++ b/cps_stage2/stage2.py @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ STAGE_1_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "puf_stage1", "Stage_I_factors.csv") STAGE_2_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "cps_stage1", "stage_2_targets.csv") START_YEAR = 2014 -END_YEAR = 2030 +END_YEAR = 2031 def main(): diff --git a/doc/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md b/doc/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md index 45ba9a73..dcf87b80 100644 --- a/doc/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md +++ b/doc/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md @@ -47,9 +47,9 @@ As previously mentioned, most of the variables we used can be found in the To manually update these variables download the latest file and copy/paste the specific variables. -Previous Document: January 2020 +Previous Document: July 2020 -Current Document: July 2020 +Current Document: February 2021 | Variable | Name In CBO Document | |----------|-----------------------------------------------------| @@ -70,9 +70,9 @@ Current Document: July 2020 Source: [Revenue Projections, By Category (CBO)](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#7) -Previous: [January 2019](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-02/51138-2019-01-revenueprojections.xlsx) +Previous: [January 2020](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-01/51138-2020-01-revenue-projections.xlsx) -Current: [January 2020](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-01/51138-2020-01-revenue-projections.xlsx) +Current: [February 2021](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-02/51138-2021-02-11-revenueprojections.xlsx) In the revenue projections file, the data is in the `Capital Gains Realizations` tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column. @@ -81,9 +81,9 @@ tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column. Source: [IRS Publication 6187 Table 1B](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/projections-of-federal-tax-return-filings) -Previous: [Fall 2019 Update](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p6187.pdf) +Previous: [Fall 2019 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/19projpub6187tables.xls) -Current: [Fall 2019 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/19projpub6187tables.xls) +Current: [Fall 2020 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/20projpub6187tables.xls) The projections in the publication typically end a few years before the 10-year projections do. We use the growth rate from the final year in the @@ -108,7 +108,7 @@ column of this table. Source: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth) Series ID: CUSR0000SAM -Access Date: August 22 2020 +Access Date: June 16 2021 Manual Instructions: diff --git a/history/reports/taxdata_report_2021-06-16.pdf b/history/reports/taxdata_report_2021-06-16.pdf new file mode 100644 index 00000000..365f88c3 Binary files /dev/null and b/history/reports/taxdata_report_2021-06-16.pdf differ diff --git a/puf_stage1/CBO_baseline.csv b/puf_stage1/CBO_baseline.csv index bee615f3..dee15ba7 100644 --- a/puf_stage1/CBO_baseline.csv +++ b/puf_stage1/CBO_baseline.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ -,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030 -GDP,14718.6,14418.7,14964.4,15517.9,16163.2,16800.0,17348.1,18036.7,18624.5,19519.4,20580.3,21427.7,20339.1,21313.0,22298.0,23208.5,24213.7,25286.6,26415.3,27582.8,28746.8,29873.5,31022.3 -TPY,12429.6,12087.5,12429.3,13202.0,13887.7,14166.9,14694.2,15458.5,15928.7,16878.8,17819.2,18608.3,19208.3,18695.7,19341.5,20130.6,20995.7,21969.5,23033.8,24157.9,25364.3,26582.2,27837.8 -Wages,6531.9,6251.4,6377.5,6633.2,6932.1,7124.7,7477.8,7854.8,8085.3,8462.1,8888.5,9304.2,9018.2,9324.6,9748.8,10141.9,10569.3,11037.6,11540.5,12062.9,12571.5,13048.6,13528.3 -SCHC,979.5,937.5,986.7,1068.1,1187.9,1253.5,1268.5,1336.8,1298.7,1480.1,1561.6,1626.3,1591.5,1567.2,1623.2,1691.8,1771.9,1854.8,1938.4,2021.7,2107.8,2197.2,2289.6 -SCHF,47.0,35.5,46.0,75.5,72.3,83.2,78.1,40.0,43.2,38.1,27.2,32.0,28.7,30.6,34.7,37.6,40.4,43.0,45.3,47.8,50.5,53.6,56.9 -INTS,1361.6,1264.3,1195.0,1231.6,1255.9,1255.2,1302.0,1302.8,1415.3,1551.6,1702.7,1720.6,1666.8,1611.3,1586.3,1586.4,1597.5,1651.8,1746.1,1884.2,2085.4,2307.0,2551.8 -DIVS,805.4,553.7,544.6,682.2,832.7,824.5,815.5,951.1,962.5,1130.0,1227.5,1272.3,1222.1,1047.5,1105.7,1180.3,1259.0,1346.5,1435.4,1523.6,1612.3,1700.1,1787.7 -RENTS,262.1,333.7,402.8,485.3,533.0,595.8,610.8,659.6,707.4,718.8,756.8,777.9,802.8,807.1,849.7,903.1,946.7,978.8,1005.7,1029.5,1054.5,1080.9,1108.8 -CGNS,498.0,264.0,394.0,404.0,647.0,511.0,716.0,725.0,641.0,871.3,964.0,1035.8,1016.4,1012.4,1007.2,989.0,987.5,997.3,1016.0,1042.6,1073.6,1108.3,1145.9 -BOOK,1285.1,1397.0,1746.4,1816.6,2022.8,2106.9,2072.9,2088.1,2073.5,2006.0,2074.6,2074.7,2005.4,2086.7,2246.0,2371.5,2545.7,2715.1,2848.3,2957.5,3040.3,3108.6,3190.2 -RETS,142.5,140.5,142.9,145.4,144.9,146.6,148.3,147.8,149.7,149.9,152.5,153.6,155.1,156.6,158.0,159.5,161.0,162.4,163.9,165.4,166.9,168.4,169.9 -SOCSEC,503.0,544.5,572.5,591.5,627.2,663.2,698.2,733.7,762.1,791.1,833.0,887.2,940.9,996.3,1057.5,1123.1,1193.1,1266.6,1344.3,1426.3,1515.5,1607.5,1705.1 -CPIU,215.3,214.5,218.1,224.9,229.6,233.0,236.7,237.0,240.0,245.1,251.1,255.6,258.1,261.2,266.0,271.8,277.9,284.2,290.5,297.0,303.6,310.4,317.3 -CPIM,364.1,375.6,388.4,400.3,414.9,425.1,435.3,446.8,463.7,475.3,484.7,498.4,516.8,463.5,468.3,474.1,480.2,486.5,492.8,499.3,505.9,512.7,519.6 -UCOMP,51.1,131.2,138.9,107.2,83.6,62.2,43.8,39.9,31.2,31.1,28.7,27.0,27.925,29.855,34.185,41.335,45.685,47.125,49.78,51.42,53.08,55.135,56.655 +,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031 +GDP,14718.6,14418.7,14964.4,15517.9,16163.2,16800,17348.1,18036.7,18624.5,19543,20611.9,21433.2,20933.5,22253.1,23334.8,24322,25402.1,26529.2,27630.3,28689.4,29783.9,30903,32039.8,33237.6 +TPY,12429.6,12087.5,12429.3,13202,13887.7,14166.9,14694.2,15458.5,15928.7,16948.6,17851.9,18551.5,19675.2,20007.9,20357.1,21132.1,22020.3,23006.2,24053.4,25099.9,26242.6,27410.3,28631.6,29983.7 +Wages,6531.9,6251.4,6377.5,6633.2,6932.1,7124.7,7477.8,7854.8,8085.3,8471.5,8894.2,9309.4,9336.7,9793.5,10241.9,10676.8,11149.9,11641.1,12118.2,12563.6,13017.3,13475.2,13936.8,14428.2 +SCHC,979.5,937.5,986.7,1068.1,1187.9,1253.5,1268.5,1336.8,1298.7,1467.5,1542.9,1608,1611.2,1778.7,1785.7,1850.7,1936.1,2023.1,2107.3,2188.7,2272.9,2355.3,2439.3,2530.3 +SCHF,47,35.5,46,75.5,72.3,83.2,78.1,40,43.2,41.5,43,49.7,66.4,62,54.7,58,59.9,61.7,63.3,65.2,67.2,69.6,72.2,74.8 +INTS,1361.6,1264.3,1195,1231.6,1255.9,1255.2,1302,1302.8,1415.3,1577.7,1641.6,1677.4,1638.3,1557.9,1512.7,1526,1549.8,1631.6,1782.2,1958.7,2161.2,2362.2,2586.1,2810.1 +DIVS,805.4,553.7,544.6,682.2,832.7,824.5,815.5,951.1,962.5,1160.9,1305.1,1290.4,1261.2,1345.7,1444.8,1510.2,1566.5,1618.6,1666.1,1717.8,1779,1850.9,1934,2025 +RENTS,262.1,333.7,402.8,485.3,533,595.8,610.8,659.6,707.4,721.9,759.3,787.1,804.4,837.7,888.3,948.7,993.8,1019.4,1039.9,1061,1091.7,1127.6,1165.3,1215.5 +CGNS,498,264,394,404,647,511,716,725,641,871.3,944,1044.6,962,1191.7,1207.6,1116.2,1070.9,1055.2,1053.1,1063.1,1083.5,1110.9,1143,1179.9 +BOOK,1285.1,1397,1746.4,1816.6,2022.8,2106.9,2072.9,2088.1,2073.5,2114.5,2243,2250.6,2036.8,2302.1,2339.5,2501.7,2689.8,2861.4,2974,3068.9,3158.6,3240,3322.1,3410.9 +RETS,142.5,140.5,142.9,145.4,144.9,146.6,148.3,147.8,149.7,149.9,152.5,153.5,160,161,159.1,161.8,164.2,165.9,167.2,168.3,169.5,170.8,172,173.2 +SOCSEC,503,544.5,572.5,591.5,627.2,663.2,698.2,733.7,762.1,791.1,833,887.2,940.9,996.3,1057.5,1123.1,1193.1,1266.6,1344.3,1426.3,1515.5,1607.5,1705.1,1808.6 +CPIU,215.3,214.5,218.1,224.9,229.6,233,236.7,237,240,245.1,251.1,255.6,258.8,263.8,269.3,275.4,281.8,288.4,295.4,302.6,310,317.6,325.2,332.8 +CPIM,364.1,375.6,388.4,400.3,414.9,425.1,435.3,446.8,463.7,475.3,484.7,498.4,518.9,523.2,475.8,481.9,488.3,494.9,501.9,509.1,516.5,524.1,531.7,539.3 +UCOMP,51.1,131.2,138.9,107.2,83.6,62.2,43.8,39.9,31.2,31.1,28.7,27,27.925,240.656,39.895,36.821,35.901,33.945,32.98,33.692,35.617,37.695,40.32,45.273 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/puf_stage1/Stage_II_targets.csv b/puf_stage1/Stage_II_targets.csv index 5db037d0..fa579880 100644 --- a/puf_stage1/Stage_II_targets.csv +++ b/puf_stage1/Stage_II_targets.csv @@ -1,31 +1,31 @@ -,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030 -US Population,311721632,314112078,316497531,318857056,321368864,323995528,326625791,329256465,331883986,334503458,337108968,339698079,342267302,344814299,347334912,349825585,352281475,354698370,357072830,359402194 -POP_DEP,82840576,82503131,82296428,82135602,82109509,82178228,82284937,82410728,82547300,82624346,82772040,83023463,83259014,83463249,83673850,83868421,84024180,84193698,84484144,84767392 -POP_SNR,41366628,43164909,44723041,46243211,47830245,49420383,51055052,52766466,54556914,56441027,58292098,60221375,62126945,63987872,65919552,67748101,69455598,71098995,72675827,74107408 -Single Returns,67294506,66655855,68563354,69579590,71086947,71410690,73021932,74164397,75166909,76052548,76951274,77812834,78684040,79565000,80455824,81356621,82267505,83188586,84119980,85061802 -Joint Returns,56013790,56458434,56796607,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,58894443,59690545,60393837,61107520,61791691,62483522,63183098,63890507,64605837,65329175,66060612,66800238,67548145 -Head of Household Returns,22061944,21814184,21991339,22077498,22134303,21659639,21894095,22236639,22537222,22802762,23072226,23330546,23591759,23855897,24122992,24393077,24666186,24942353,25221612,25503998 -Number of Returns w/ Gross Security Income,25837226,26480552,27070833,27401498,28087514,28329015,28967603,29938625,30954489,32023496,33073756,34168389,35249571,36305423,37401419,38438901,39407700,40340131,41234793,42047043 -Number of Dependent Exemptions,99345455,97912393,97691386,96916673,96505181,94809260,94708629,94853412,95010605,95099283,95269277,95558660,95829776,96064847,96307245,96531193,96710470,96905582,97239881,97565894 -Taxable Interest Income,120111673,111789613,100648711,93894280,95881223,96640233,106055367,116383394,117606899,113929547,110135997,108427190,108434026,109192736,112904263,119349882,128789329,142541804,157688664,174421298 -Ordinary Dividends,194609806,260393306,214972683,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,306696895,317890395,305347679,261723012,276264568,294903744,314567325,336429629,358641730,380678932,402841062,424778323,446665613 -Business Income (Schedule C),337210620,356450905,357363490,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,438917221,457102380,447321181,440491207,456231066,475512394,498026014,521326627,544823989,568237029,592437063,617564624,643535392 -Business Loss (Schedule C),54240803,52259366,55290946,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,73472490,76516592,74879270,73735967,76370739,79598334,83366998,87267401,91200739,95119962,99170923,103377148,107724521 -Net Capital Gains in AGI,402566646,644856734,504322768,705007630,713598090,634341278,859894631,951381182,1022241316,1003095263,999147624,994015692,976053931,974573566,984245283,1002700499,1028952304,1059546512,1093792287,1130900101 -Taxable Pensions and Annuities,581180358,612544219,638659076,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,769813987,803904195,829825021,807679995,835579445,869669652,907043163,949112665,995091891,1043654560,1095772702,1148387659,1202631309 -Supplemental Income (Schedule E),661331485,777023944,780713118,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1006590676,1006639195,973015011,1012461565,1089753522,1150645805,1235167205,1317359656,1381987960,1434971524,1475145874,1508284862,1547876975 -Supplemental Loss (Schedule E),175315530,163765597,167171652,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,213426691,213436979,206307667,214671492,231059649,243970596,261891607,279318813,293021905,304255972,312774110,319800546,328195233 -Gross Social Security Income,490699539,526514454,553542772,575126918,605152093,619856114,644989570,679150944,723340597,767122597,812290619,862187423,915671579,972743087,1032668170,1096017544,1162872739,1235598146,1310606414,1390180402 -Unemployment Compensation,92383693,71234134,51923279,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,22098109,20789162,21501384,22987424,26321389,31826667,35176032,36284788,38329055,39591804,40869953,42452239,43622592 -Wages and Salaries: Zero or Less,21437416,20445434,20280688,19421543,20111022,20544631,20869123,21920705,22945899,22240570,22996209,24042366,25011824,26065873,27220788,28461034,29749370,31003673,32180291,33363321 -"Wages and Salaries: $1 Less Than $10,000",92961755,93108807,94466204,94899140,91906875,90725454,86507256,90866303,95115965,92192214,95324513,99661070,103679694,108048964,112836351,117977451,123317897,128517267,133394616,138298544 -"Wages and Salaries: $10,000 Less Than $20,000",265080549,262184682,266041138,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,259983849,272142851,263777504,272739540,285147162,296645125,309146346,322843869,337553424,352833343,367709620,381664539,395695506 -"Wages and Salaries: $20,000 Less Than $30,000",373549061,371577702,380567075,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,402077740,420882231,407944814,421805040,440994034,458776198,478109946,499293836,522042882,545674025,568680915,590262879,611962456 -"Wages and Salaries: $30,000 Less Than $40,000",410623212,408353008,408654349,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,463518245,485196204,470281852,486260024,508381242,528880654,551168745,575589692,601814964,629057123,655579639,680459489,705474925 -"Wages and Salaries: $40,000 Less Than $50,000",391671646,391349650,410049846,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,459530211,481021656,466235624,482076324,504007214,524330252,546426580,570637414,596637047,623644820,649939140,674604928,699405136 -"Wages and Salaries: $50,000 Less Than $75,000",900170384,902783183,915963625,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1050914956,1100064458,1066249790,1102476413,1152630897,1199108330,1249641159,1305009723,1364469151,1426234125,1486367483,1542776497,1599492918 -"Wages and Salaries: $75,000 Less Than $100,000",791646425,798324358,822009437,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,914265613,957024258,927606475,959122590,1002755539,1043189562,1087151662,1135320710,1187048693,1240782434,1293096716,1342170927,1391512572 -"Wages and Salaries: $100,000 Less Than $200,000",1521442934,1599743841,1665691829,1759304940,1876094165,1922367424,2015029480,2116565573,2215553738,2147450261,2220411469,2321423689,2415030251,2516804467,2628317958,2748070540,2872466541,2993576430,3107185412,3221413516 -"Wages and Salaries: $200,000 Less Than $500,000",750627685,806518068,872227137,955295796,1055689937,1106449651,1206754121,1267561717,1326843419,1286057836,1329752600,1390246461,1446305246,1507255449,1574038275,1645755301,1720253162,1792783048,1860820816,1929229361 -"Wages and Salaries: $500,000 Less Than $1 Million",230634407,259165177,272996984,310372311,337666673,343994542,379375686,398492193,417128994,404306946,418043573,437061449,454685039,473846378,494841360,517387540,540807951,563609676,584999182,606505252 -Wages and Salaries: $1 Million and Over,305543960,387803684,346432571,408251028,336316005,310089733,367731740,386261516,404326309,391897801,405212817,423646989,440729669,459302901,479653497,501507681,524209263,546311148,567044160,587890157 +,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031 +US Population,311721632,314112078,316497531,318857056,321368864,323995528,326625791,329256465,331883986,334503458,337108968,339698079,342267302,344814299,347334912,349825585,352281475,354698370,357072830,359402194,361684740 +POP_DEP,82840576,82503131,82296428,82135602,82109509,82178228,82284937,82410728,82547300,82624346,82772040,83023463,83259014,83463249,83673850,83868421,84024180,84193698,84484144,84767392,85040759 +POP_SNR,41366628,43164909,44723041,46243211,47830245,49420383,51055052,52766466,54556914,56441027,58292098,60221375,62126945,63987872,65919552,67748101,69455598,71098995,72675827,74107408,75245391 +Single Returns,67294506,66655855,68563354,69579590,71086947,71410690,73021932,74164397,75166909,76052548,76951274,77812834,78684040,79565000,80455824,81356621,82267505,83188586,84119980,85061802,86014169 +Joint Returns,56013790,56458434,56796607,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,58894443,59690545,60393837,61107520,61791691,62483522,63183098,63890507,64605837,65329175,66060612,66800238,67548145,68304426 +Head of Household Returns,22061944,21814184,21991339,22077498,22134303,21659639,21894095,22236639,22537222,22802762,23072226,23330546,23591759,23855897,24122992,24393077,24666186,24942353,25221612,25503998,25789545 +Number of Returns w/ Gross Security Income,25837226,26480552,27070833,27401498,28087514,28329015,28967603,29938625,30954489,32023496,33073756,34168389,35249571,36305423,37401419,38438901,39407700,40340131,41234793,42047043,42692712 +Number of Dependent Exemptions,99345455,97912393,97691386,96916673,96505181,94809260,94708629,94853412,95010605,95099283,95269277,95558660,95829776,96064847,96307245,96531193,96710470,96905582,97239881,97565894,97880535 +Taxable Interest Income,120111673,111789613,100648711,93894280,95881223,96640233,106055367,110350821,112757351,110128990,104724381,101685969,102580015,104179887,109678606,119802165,131666760,145279115,158790637,173841532,188899149 +Ordinary Dividends,194609806,260393306,214972683,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,317406123,313831018,306729448,327280224,351381784,367287355,380979766,393650717,405202928,417776598,432660710,450147110,470357400,492489004 +Business Income (Schedule C),337210620,356450905,357363490,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,437384661,455839351,456746494,504229759,506214135,524640477,548849855,573512805,597382005,620457455,644326654,667685586,691498090,717294968 +Business Loss (Schedule C),54240803,52259366,55290946,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,73215947,76305167,76457019,84405473,84737648,87822123,91874648,96003100,99998681,103861393,107856975,111767140,115753231,120071496 +Net Capital Gains in AGI,402566646,644856734,504322768,705007630,713598090,634341278,859894631,931642984,1030926124,949407363,1176100576,1191792444,1101588875,1056881855,1041387369,1039314858,1049183958,1069316920,1096358253,1128038062,1164455039 +Taxable Pensions and Annuities,581180358,612544219,638659076,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,768050503,798149716,846495178,860809083,875832875,909176056,947389493,989806323,1034860490,1079884540,1129047448,1179285942,1231830494,1290002514 +Supplemental Income (Schedule E),661331485,777023944,780713118,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1032454787,1035953074,937540754,1059658567,1076873818,1151534615,1238117203,1317104827,1368934702,1412617252,1453906237,1491374726,1529165425,1570040140 +Supplemental Loss (Schedule E),175315530,163765597,167171652,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,218910640,219652379,198786086,224678638,228328775,244159050,262517093,279264782,290254233,299516212,308270686,316215102,324227837,332894473 +Gross Social Security Income,490699539,526514454,553542772,575126918,605152093,619856114,644989570,679150944,723340597,767122597,812290619,862187423,915671579,972743087,1032668170,1096017544,1162872739,1235598146,1310606414,1390180402,1474564703 +Unemployment Compensation,92383693,71234134,51923279,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,22098109,20789162,21501384,185297653,30717912,28351027,27642656,26136597,25393577,25941795,27423985,29023980,31045149,34858805 +Wages and Salaries: Zero or Less,21437416,20445434,20280688,19421543,20111022,20544631,20869123,21910424,22933248,23000501,24125805,25230416,26301771,27467229,28677276,29852589,30949810,32067477,33195492,34332620,35543160 +"Wages and Salaries: $1 Less Than $10,000",92961755,93108807,94466204,94899140,91906875,90725454,86507256,90823684,95063525,95342300,100006942,104585807,109026816,113857906,118873826,123745763,128293993,132926979,137602854,142316511,147334473 +"Wages and Salaries: $10,000 Less Than $20,000",265080549,262184682,266041138,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,259861907,271992808,272790433,286136762,299237668,311944144,325766711,340118105,354057539,367070794,380326550,393705018,407191588,421548826 +"Wages and Salaries: $20,000 Less Than $30,000",373549061,371577702,380567075,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,401889151,420650184,421883749,442524499,462785691,482436879,503814154,526009286,547567303,567692939,588193614,608884069,629741710,651945880 +"Wages and Salaries: $30,000 Less Than $40,000",410623212,408353008,408654349,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,463300838,484928698,486350761,510145573,533502828,556156865,580800748,606387465,631239709,654440693,678074026,701926138,725970983,751568118 +"Wages and Salaries: $40,000 Less Than $50,000",391671646,391349650,410049846,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,459314674,480756451,482166279,505756365,528912658,551371783,575803635,601170207,625808627,648809993,672239989,695886881,719724849,745101750 +"Wages and Salaries: $50,000 Less Than $75,000",900170384,902783183,915963625,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1050422039,1099457953,1102682136,1156631090,1209587988,1260950510,1316824525,1374836185,1431182608,1483785200,1537368038,1591446904,1645962748,1703998028 +"Wages and Salaries: $75,000 Less Than $100,000",791646425,798324358,822009437,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,913836790,956496617,959301562,1006235592,1052306561,1096990470,1145599247,1196067713,1245087471,1290850205,1337465724,1384512773,1431939980,1482428995 +"Wages and Salaries: $100,000 Less Than $200,000",1521442934,1599743841,1665691829,1759304940,1876094165,1922367424,2015029480,2115572827,2214332225,2220825798,2329480164,2436136508,2539581745,2652113227,2768949971,2882432892,2988375657,3096292658,3205208670,3315004764,3431889080 +"Wages and Salaries: $200,000 Less Than $500,000",750627685,806518068,872227137,955295796,1055689937,1106449651,1206754121,1266967184,1326111883,1330000732,1395071296,1458945291,1520896228,1588288706,1658259505,1726221778,1789668426,1854297399,1919524657,1985278975,2055278263 +"Wages and Salaries: $500,000 Less Than $1 Million",230634407,259165177,272996984,310372311,337666673,343994542,379375686,398305286,416899016,418121580,438578266,458658778,478134725,499321367,521318574,542684346,562630510,582948370,603454317,624125959,646132122 +Wages and Salaries: $1 Million and Over,305543960,387803684,346432571,408251028,336316005,310089733,367731740,386080345,404103389,405288430,425117251,444581445,463459628,483996002,505318062,526028067,545362036,565056292,584932862,604970042,626300784 diff --git a/puf_stage1/Stage_I_factors.csv b/puf_stage1/Stage_I_factors.csv index 3dbb9b1c..e7937b22 100644 --- a/puf_stage1/Stage_I_factors.csv +++ b/puf_stage1/Stage_I_factors.csv @@ -5,17 +5,18 @@ YEAR,APOPN,APOPDEP,APOPSNR,AGDPN,ATXPY,ASCHF,ABOOK,ACPIU,ACPIM,ARETS,AWAGE,ASCHC 2014,1.0229,0.9915,1.1179,1.1179,1.1130,1.0344,1.1411,1.0525,1.0874,1.0097,1.1205,1.1111,1.0582,1.2797,0.9523,0.7817,1.3088,1.7513,1.1721,0.3603,0.8029,1.0000 2015,1.0309,0.9912,1.1563,1.1623,1.1709,0.5298,1.1495,1.0538,1.1162,1.0352,1.1565,1.1624,1.1092,1.3475,1.0147,0.7983,1.3373,1.7726,1.2332,0.2947,0.7938,1.0621 2016,1.0394,0.9920,1.1947,1.2002,1.2065,0.5722,1.1414,1.0671,1.1584,1.0337,1.1738,1.1538,1.1246,1.3351,1.0065,0.8046,1.3055,1.5757,1.2632,0.2752,0.7952,1.1748 -2017,1.0478,0.9933,1.2342,1.2579,1.2785,0.5046,1.1043,1.0898,1.1874,1.0518,1.2313,1.2337,1.2839,1.4717,1.1771,0.8830,1.4508,2.1360,1.3144,0.2592,0.8185,1.1984 -2018,1.0563,0.9948,1.2756,1.3262,1.3497,0.3603,1.1420,1.1165,1.2108,1.0683,1.2934,1.3016,1.3546,1.5221,1.2174,0.9690,1.5760,2.3633,1.3840,0.2392,0.8641,1.3326 -2019,1.0647,0.9965,1.3189,1.3808,1.4095,0.4238,1.1421,1.1365,1.2451,1.0827,1.3539,1.3555,1.4107,1.5221,1.2174,0.9791,1.6335,2.5393,1.4741,0.2250,0.9024,1.4158 -2020,1.0731,0.9974,1.3644,1.3107,1.4550,0.3801,1.1039,1.1476,1.2910,1.0955,1.3123,1.3265,1.3805,1.4713,1.1768,0.9485,1.5690,2.4917,1.5633,0.2327,0.9315,1.4223 -2021,1.0814,0.9992,1.4092,1.3734,1.4161,0.4053,1.1487,1.1614,1.1579,1.1084,1.3568,1.3063,1.3594,1.5309,1.2245,0.9169,1.3449,2.4819,1.6554,0.2488,0.9066,1.4764 -2022,1.0897,1.0022,1.4558,1.4369,1.4650,0.4596,1.2364,1.1827,1.1699,1.1208,1.4186,1.3530,1.4080,1.6478,1.3180,0.9027,1.4196,2.4692,1.7571,0.2849,0.9379,1.5326 -2023,1.0980,1.0051,1.5019,1.4956,1.5248,0.4980,1.3055,1.2085,1.1844,1.1334,1.4758,1.4101,1.4675,1.7399,1.3916,0.9028,1.5154,2.4246,1.8661,0.3445,0.9762,1.5909 -2024,1.1062,1.0075,1.5468,1.5604,1.5903,0.5351,1.4014,1.2357,1.1996,1.1461,1.5380,1.4769,1.5370,1.8677,1.4938,0.9091,1.6164,2.4209,1.9824,0.3808,1.0181,1.6514 -2025,1.1142,1.0101,1.5935,1.6295,1.6641,0.5695,1.4946,1.2637,1.2153,1.1589,1.6061,1.5460,1.6089,1.9920,1.5932,0.9400,1.7287,2.4449,2.1045,0.3928,1.0653,1.7143 -2026,1.1222,1.0124,1.6377,1.7022,1.7447,0.6000,1.5679,1.2917,1.2311,1.1719,1.6793,1.6157,1.6814,2.0897,1.6714,0.9937,1.8429,2.4908,2.2336,0.4149,1.1170,1.7795 -2027,1.1301,1.0143,1.6790,1.7775,1.8299,0.6331,1.6280,1.3206,1.2473,1.1850,1.7553,1.6851,1.7537,2.1698,1.7355,1.0722,1.9561,2.5560,2.3698,0.4286,1.1715,1.8472 -2028,1.1379,1.0163,1.7188,1.8525,1.9212,0.6689,1.6736,1.3499,1.2638,1.1983,1.8293,1.7569,1.8283,2.2306,1.7841,1.1867,2.0700,2.6320,2.5180,0.4424,1.2300,1.9175 -2029,1.1455,1.0198,1.7569,1.9251,2.0135,0.7099,1.7112,1.3802,1.2808,1.2117,1.8987,1.8314,1.9059,2.2807,1.8241,1.3129,2.1827,2.7170,2.6709,0.4595,1.2890,1.9904 -2030,1.1530,1.0233,1.7915,1.9991,2.1086,0.7536,1.7561,1.4108,1.2980,1.2252,1.9685,1.9084,1.9860,2.3405,1.8720,1.4522,2.2952,2.8092,2.8331,0.4722,1.3499,2.0662 +2017,1.0478,0.9933,1.2342,1.2594,1.2838,0.5497,1.1640,1.0898,1.1874,1.0518,1.2313,1.2337,1.2839,1.4717,1.1771,0.8830,1.4508,2.1360,1.3144,0.2592,0.8185,1.1984 +2018,1.0563,0.9948,1.2756,1.3283,1.3522,0.5695,1.2347,1.1165,1.2108,1.0683,1.2928,1.2971,1.3498,1.5612,1.2487,0.9187,1.6310,2.3143,1.3840,0.2392,0.8621,1.3326 +2019,1.0647,0.9965,1.3189,1.3812,1.4052,0.6583,1.2389,1.1365,1.2451,1.0827,1.3531,1.3518,1.4068,1.5665,1.2529,0.9388,1.6126,2.5609,1.4741,0.2250,0.8959,1.4158 +2020,1.0731,0.9974,1.3644,1.3490,1.4903,0.8795,1.1212,1.1507,1.2963,1.0955,1.3571,1.3545,1.4096,1.4177,1.1339,0.9169,1.5761,2.3584,1.5633,0.2327,0.9502,1.4223 +2021,1.0814,0.9992,1.4092,1.4340,1.5155,0.8212,1.2673,1.1730,1.3070,1.1084,1.4235,1.4953,1.5561,1.6023,1.2816,0.8719,1.6817,2.9215,1.6554,2.0057,0.9662,1.4764 +2022,1.0897,1.0022,1.4558,1.5037,1.5420,0.7245,1.2878,1.1974,1.1886,1.1208,1.4887,1.5012,1.5622,1.6283,1.3024,0.8466,1.8056,2.9605,1.7571,0.3325,0.9831,1.5326 +2023,1.0980,1.0051,1.5019,1.5674,1.6007,0.7682,1.3771,1.2245,1.2038,1.1334,1.5519,1.5558,1.6191,1.7412,1.3927,0.8540,1.8873,2.7364,1.8661,0.3069,1.0205,1.5909 +2024,1.1062,1.0075,1.5468,1.6370,1.6680,0.7934,1.4807,1.2530,1.2198,1.1461,1.6206,1.6276,1.6938,1.8722,1.4974,0.8674,1.9577,2.6254,1.9824,0.2992,1.0634,1.6514 +2025,1.1142,1.0101,1.5935,1.7096,1.7426,0.8172,1.5751,1.2823,1.2363,1.1589,1.6920,1.7008,1.7699,1.9916,1.5929,0.9131,2.0228,2.5869,2.1045,0.2829,1.1110,1.7143 +2026,1.1222,1.0124,1.6377,1.7805,1.8220,0.8384,1.6371,1.3135,1.2538,1.1719,1.7614,1.7715,1.8436,2.0700,1.6556,0.9974,2.0821,2.5817,2.2336,0.2749,1.1616,1.7795 +2027,1.1301,1.0143,1.6790,1.8488,1.9012,0.8636,1.6894,1.3455,1.2718,1.1850,1.8261,1.8400,1.9148,2.1360,1.7084,1.0962,2.1467,2.6062,2.3698,0.2808,1.2121,1.8472 +2028,1.1379,1.0163,1.7188,1.9193,1.9878,0.8901,1.7387,1.3784,1.2903,1.1983,1.8921,1.9108,1.9885,2.1985,1.7584,1.2095,2.2232,2.6562,2.5180,0.2968,1.2673,1.9175 +2029,1.1455,1.0198,1.7569,1.9914,2.0762,0.9219,1.7836,1.4122,1.3093,1.2117,1.9586,1.9800,2.0606,2.2551,1.8037,1.3220,2.3131,2.7234,2.6709,0.3142,1.3237,1.9904 +2030,1.1530,1.0233,1.7915,2.0647,2.1687,0.9563,1.8287,1.4460,1.3283,1.2252,2.0257,2.0506,2.1341,2.3123,1.8494,1.4473,2.4169,2.8021,2.8331,0.3360,1.3827,2.0662 +2031,1.1603,1.0266,1.8190,2.1419,2.2711,0.9907,1.8776,1.4798,1.3472,1.2390,2.0972,2.1271,2.2137,2.3741,1.8988,1.5727,2.5306,2.8926,3.0050,0.3773,1.4480,2.1448 diff --git a/puf_stage1/growfactors.csv b/puf_stage1/growfactors.csv index 3b13761f..2d0307a9 100644 --- a/puf_stage1/growfactors.csv +++ b/puf_stage1/growfactors.csv @@ -5,17 +5,18 @@ YEAR,ATXPY,ASCHF,ABOOK,ACPIU,ACPIM,AWAGE,ASCHCI,ASCHCL,ASCHEI,ASCHEL,AINTS,ADIVS 2014,1.029476,0.931683,0.976566,1.015927,1.023917,1.039999,1.040616,1.030349,1.075978,0.991321,0.925886,1.17606,1.387522,1.004801,0.641103,0.970506,0.99257,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 2015,1.043858,0.508206,0.999544,1.001235,1.026485,1.024119,1.038052,1.040061,1.04481,1.057257,1.013311,1.013846,1.004308,1.017188,0.81793,0.988666,1.053858,1.023325,1.041528,1.019361,1.102667,1.007792,1.026748,1.132657,1.04693 2016,1.021978,1.071198,0.984833,1.012621,1.037807,1.006659,0.984484,1.005593,0.982695,0.983807,0.999649,0.968237,0.881651,0.991403,0.933831,1.001764,1.097065,1.011695,1.010367,0.993375,0.989722,1.002577,1.01625,0.828168,1.105413 -2017,1.051182,0.87479,0.95974,1.021273,1.025035,1.040577,1.060677,1.132498,1.093477,1.160123,1.088642,1.102389,1.344721,1.00723,0.94186,1.029301,1.011911,1.030968,1.014601,0.981621,1.0,0.998715,1.063959,1.0,1.0 -2018,1.047195,0.708285,1.025818,1.0245,1.019707,1.041982,1.046548,1.046577,1.025924,1.025914,1.088565,1.077556,1.097511,1.018778,0.92284,1.055712,1.103035,1.045097,1.045897,1.005738,1.0,1.002574,1.034828,1.0,1.0 -2019,1.036067,1.166962,0.992197,1.017913,1.028328,1.038517,1.033194,1.033198,0.99211,0.99211,1.002451,1.028307,1.065995,1.030133,0.940635,1.044324,1.054052,1.052158,1.045866,1.000751,1.0,1.002567,1.034809,1.0,1.0 -2020,1.0242,0.889865,0.958987,1.009767,1.036865,0.961687,0.970945,0.970932,0.959059,0.959084,0.961164,0.952996,0.973574,1.025146,1.034222,1.032247,0.996727,1.050763,1.046106,1.00255,1.0,1.003841,1.034974,1.0,1.0 -2021,0.965795,1.058114,1.032597,1.012025,0.896902,1.025974,0.977214,0.977158,1.032522,1.032547,0.959265,0.850591,0.988422,1.02525,1.069188,0.973269,1.03007,1.047248,1.047927,1.001796,1.0,1.002551,1.034869,1.0,1.0 -2022,1.026652,1.125338,1.068149,1.01834,1.010364,1.037585,1.027861,1.027862,1.068162,1.068159,0.977014,1.047503,0.987305,1.027459,1.145096,1.034525,1.030159,1.048769,1.047573,0.999851,1.0,1.002545,1.034942,1.0,1.0 -2023,1.032951,1.07536,1.047906,1.021814,1.012394,1.032457,1.034324,1.03438,1.047911,1.047861,0.992551,1.059414,0.974515,1.029435,1.209196,1.040836,1.030193,1.050822,1.048715,1.000448,1.0,1.003807,1.034968,1.0,1.0 -2024,1.035225,1.066533,1.065501,1.022507,1.012834,1.034421,1.039609,1.039596,1.065495,1.065483,0.999514,1.058742,0.991073,1.031486,1.10537,1.042922,1.030334,1.048426,1.051767,0.99776,1.0,1.002528,1.034951,1.0,1.0 -2025,1.038893,1.056645,1.058847,1.022659,1.013088,1.03678,1.039271,1.039264,1.058895,1.058884,1.026566,1.061797,1.002662,1.03048,1.031513,1.046361,1.030635,1.046248,1.052213,1.002245,1.0,1.003783,1.034897,1.0,1.0 -2026,1.04096,1.046045,1.041565,1.022157,1.013001,1.038122,1.037634,1.037612,1.041568,1.041605,1.049592,1.058461,1.011511,1.0327,1.056263,1.048531,1.030633,1.072236,1.0,0.999552,1.0,1.002513,1.034808,1.0,1.0 -2027,1.041502,1.04779,1.031073,1.022374,1.013159,1.03795,1.035663,1.035709,1.031072,1.031092,1.071455,1.054005,1.019003,1.03488,1.03302,1.048791,1.030788,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.002506,1.034863,1.0,1.0 -2028,1.042697,1.049305,1.020963,1.022187,1.013229,1.035014,1.035462,1.035392,1.020974,1.020957,1.099203,1.050974,1.022675,1.037933,1.032198,1.049936,1.030942,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -2029,1.041089,1.054253,1.015683,1.022446,1.013451,1.031052,1.035488,1.035528,1.015677,1.015637,1.099005,1.047449,1.025446,1.03772,1.038653,1.047967,1.031131,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -2030,1.040419,1.054653,1.019563,1.022171,1.013429,1.030018,1.035266,1.035249,1.019545,1.019584,1.098906,1.044702,1.027209,1.040242,1.027639,1.047246,1.03133,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 +2017,1.055539,0.952977,1.011625,1.021273,1.025035,1.040577,1.060677,1.132498,1.093477,1.160123,1.088642,1.102389,1.344721,1.00723,0.94186,1.029301,1.011911,1.030968,1.014601,0.981621,1.0,0.998715,1.063959,1.0,1.0 +2018,1.044804,1.027683,1.052203,1.0245,1.019707,1.041498,1.04293,1.042868,1.052278,1.052291,1.032058,1.115161,1.074755,1.018778,0.92284,1.053268,1.103035,1.045097,1.045897,1.005738,1.0,1.002574,1.034828,1.0,1.0 +2019,1.030997,1.146807,0.995485,1.017913,1.028328,1.038385,1.033949,1.034006,0.995478,0.995447,1.013817,0.980918,1.097825,1.030133,0.940635,1.039207,1.054052,1.052158,1.045866,1.000751,1.0,1.002567,1.034809,1.0,1.0 +2020,1.052259,1.325559,0.897912,1.012495,1.041121,0.995105,0.994154,0.994147,0.897927,0.897936,0.969027,0.969715,0.913717,1.025146,1.034222,1.060609,0.996727,1.050763,1.046106,1.00255,1.0,1.003841,1.034974,1.0,1.0 +2021,1.009104,0.926546,1.121631,1.01938,1.008254,1.040877,1.095477,1.095457,1.121536,1.121583,0.943623,1.058811,1.229256,1.02525,8.619252,1.016839,1.03007,1.047248,1.047927,1.001796,1.0,1.002551,1.034869,1.0,1.0 +2022,1.009736,0.875526,1.008436,1.020801,0.909411,1.037837,0.996299,0.996273,1.008486,1.008489,0.963587,1.065498,1.005631,1.027459,0.165778,1.017491,1.030159,1.048769,1.047573,0.999851,1.0,1.002545,1.034942,1.0,1.0 +2023,1.03022,1.052302,1.06126,1.022632,1.012788,1.034573,1.028537,1.028588,1.061253,1.06125,1.001116,1.037347,0.917316,1.029435,0.923008,1.038043,1.030193,1.050822,1.048715,1.000448,1.0,1.003807,1.034968,1.0,1.0 +2024,1.03432,1.025148,1.06726,1.023275,1.013291,1.036527,1.038395,1.038382,1.067265,1.067208,1.008162,1.029613,0.952324,1.031486,0.97491,1.042038,1.030334,1.048426,1.051767,0.99776,1.0,1.002528,1.034951,1.0,1.0 +2025,1.037223,1.022602,1.056116,1.023384,1.013527,1.036561,1.037471,1.037426,1.056137,1.056139,1.045128,1.025835,0.978261,1.03048,0.945521,1.044762,1.030635,1.046248,1.052213,1.002245,1.0,1.003783,1.034897,1.0,1.0 +2026,1.03811,1.018628,1.031953,1.024331,1.014155,1.033595,1.034143,1.034215,1.031956,1.031953,1.084536,1.021978,0.990875,1.0327,0.971721,1.045545,1.030633,1.072236,1.0,0.999552,1.0,1.002513,1.034808,1.0,1.0 +2027,1.036174,1.022857,1.024733,1.024362,1.014356,1.029485,1.031407,1.03136,1.024671,1.024678,1.091375,1.023819,1.002433,1.03488,1.021462,1.043475,1.030788,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.002506,1.034863,1.0,1.0 +2028,1.038383,1.02362,1.022127,1.024452,1.014546,1.02904,1.03136,1.031371,1.022205,1.022212,1.095794,1.028537,1.012199,1.037933,1.05698,1.045541,1.030942,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 +2029,1.037542,1.028855,1.019018,1.024521,1.014725,1.028278,1.02934,1.029383,1.018939,1.018956,1.085762,1.033534,1.018497,1.03772,1.058625,1.044504,1.031131,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 +2030,1.037758,1.030567,1.018617,1.023934,1.014512,1.027532,1.02892,1.028932,1.018695,1.018667,1.087659,1.038078,1.022205,1.040242,1.069383,1.044572,1.03133,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 +2031,1.040629,1.029454,1.020281,1.023375,1.014229,1.028783,1.03078,1.030773,1.020267,1.020252,1.079808,1.040456,1.025803,1.04464,1.122917,1.047226,1.03151,,,,,,,, diff --git a/puf_stage1/stage1.py b/puf_stage1/stage1.py index 6b13f495..3c346506 100644 --- a/puf_stage1/stage1.py +++ b/puf_stage1/stage1.py @@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ CUR_PATH = os.path.abspath(os.path.dirname(__file__)) SYR = 2011 # calendar year used to normalize factors BEN_SYR = 2014 # calendar year used just for the benefit start year -EYR = 2030 # last calendar year we have data for +EYR = 2031 # last calendar year we have data for SOI_YR = 2017 # most recently available SOI estimates IRS_RET_YR = 2022 # most recently available IRS return projections diff --git a/puf_stage1/updatecbo.py b/puf_stage1/updatecbo.py index dbfb44ba..d4467a78 100644 --- a/puf_stage1/updatecbo.py +++ b/puf_stage1/updatecbo.py @@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ def update_econproj(url, baseline, text_args): ) cg_proj.index = cg_proj[cg_proj.columns[0]] var = "Capital Gains Realizationsa" - cgns = cg_proj[var]["Billions of Dollars"].loc[list(range(2017, 2031))] + cgns = cg_proj[var]["Billions of Dollars"].loc[list(range(2017, 2032))] var_list = [cgns] var_names = ["CGNS"] df = pd.DataFrame(var_list, index=var_names).round(1) @@ -295,9 +295,11 @@ def update_rets(url, baseline, text_args): # find year of new reports title = ( "Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns by Major Processing " - "Categories, Selected Years and Areas, {} (PDF)" + "Categories, Selected Years and Areas, {} {} " ) - report = f"{r.html.search(title)[0]} Report" + search = r.html.search(title) + report_name = f"{search[0]} {search[1][:4]}" + report = f"{report_name} Report" if report == text_args["rets_cur_report"]: print("\tNo new data since last update") return baseline, text_args @@ -309,7 +311,7 @@ def update_rets(url, baseline, text_args): spreadsheet_url = link break data = pd.read_excel(spreadsheet_url, sheet_name="1B-BOD", index_col=0, header=2) - projections = data.loc["Forms 1040, Total*"] + projections = data.loc["Form 1040, Total*"] projections /= 1_000_000 # convert units pct_change = projections.pct_change() + 1 # extrapolate out to final year of other CBO projections @@ -362,6 +364,9 @@ def update_ucomp(url, baseline, text_args): if report == text_args["ucomp_cur_report"]: print("\tNo new data since last update") return baseline, text_args + elif report == "February 2021": + print("Latest data is from pandemic. Enter by hand") + return baseline, text_args data = pd.read_excel(ucomp_url, skiprows=3, index_col=0, thousands=",") try: benefits = data.loc[" Total Benefits"].astype(int) / 1000 @@ -423,9 +428,7 @@ def update_cbo(): baseline = pd.read_csv(Path(CUR_PATH, "CBO_baseline.csv"), index_col=0) CBO_URL = "https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data" SOCSEC_URL = "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/" - RETS_URL = ( - "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/projections-of-federal-tax-return-filings" - ) + RETS_URL = "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-calendar-year-projections-publication-6187" UCOMP_URL = ( "https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs" ) diff --git a/puf_stage2/puf_weights.csv.gz b/puf_stage2/puf_weights.csv.gz index 25068893..0809b8a3 100644 Binary files a/puf_stage2/puf_weights.csv.gz and b/puf_stage2/puf_weights.csv.gz differ diff --git a/puf_stage2/solver.jl b/puf_stage2/solver.jl index 423b2372..a803eff5 100644 --- a/puf_stage2/solver.jl +++ b/puf_stage2/solver.jl @@ -75,11 +75,11 @@ function Solve_func(year, tol) end -year_list = [x for x in 2012:2030] +year_list = [x for x in 2012:2031] tol_list = [0.40, 0.38, 0.35, 0.33, 0.30, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, - 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45] + 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45] # Run solver function for all years and tolerances (in order) for i in zip(year_list, tol_list) diff --git a/puf_stage2/stage2.py b/puf_stage2/stage2.py index 48b70162..6f28f4a0 100644 --- a/puf_stage2/stage2.py +++ b/puf_stage2/stage2.py @@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ # Dataprep -year_list = [x for x in range(2012, 2030 + 1)] +year_list = [x for x in range(2012, 2031 + 1)] for i in year_list: dataprep(puf, Stage_I_factors, Stage_II_targets, year=i) diff --git a/puf_stage3/puf_ratios.csv b/puf_stage3/puf_ratios.csv index 18778d97..ee8eb818 100644 --- a/puf_stage3/puf_ratios.csv +++ b/puf_stage3/puf_ratios.csv @@ -5,17 +5,18 @@ INT2013,1.1325,0.7670,0.7821,0.7778,0.8935,0.8699,0.9558,0.9045,0.8342,0.8596,0. INT2014,0.9106,0.8669,0.8492,0.7737,0.8431,0.8802,0.9729,0.8840,0.8368,1.0108,0.8443,1.0534,1.0274,0.9291,1.0609,1.1524,1.0626,1.0728,1.0862 INT2015,0.9813,0.9511,0.9323,0.9470,0.9543,0.9246,0.9367,0.9315,0.9463,0.9699,0.9891,1.0163,0.9966,0.9906,1.0241,0.9827,1.0221,1.1437,1.1672 INT2016,0.9843,1.0086,1.0453,1.0314,1.0447,1.0342,1.0116,1.0025,1.0025,1.0175,0.9484,0.9531,0.9752,1.0131,1.0723,1.0130,1.0804,1.0810,0.9935 -INT2017,0.9929,0.9161,0.8978,0.8911,0.8936,0.9131,0.9193,0.9401,0.9611,0.9766,1.0158,1.0694,1.0315,0.9881,0.9403,0.9756,0.9565,1.0514,1.1945 -INT2018,0.9993,0.9758,0.9681,0.9665,0.9766,0.9721,0.9766,0.9770,0.9751,0.9991,0.9931,1.0037,1.0140,1.0066,1.0183,0.9897,1.0193,1.0882,0.9982 -INT2019,0.9980,0.9765,0.9762,0.9919,0.9792,0.9812,0.9770,0.9863,0.9817,0.9947,0.9912,1.0110,1.0024,1.0074,0.9980,1.0006,1.0246,1.0290,1.0196 -INT2020,1.0019,0.9803,0.9743,0.9754,0.9840,0.9864,0.9831,0.9832,0.9931,0.9966,0.9961,1.0100,1.0059,1.0053,1.0076,0.9998,1.0137,1.0108,1.0110 -INT2021,0.9955,0.9801,0.9764,0.9784,0.9829,0.9883,0.9897,0.9869,0.9922,0.9966,1.0065,0.9979,1.0064,1.0113,1.0046,1.0033,1.0297,1.0091,1.0024 -INT2022,1.0062,0.9808,0.9811,0.9780,0.9734,0.9820,0.9829,0.9905,0.9935,1.0054,1.0020,1.0042,1.0030,1.0050,1.0046,1.0063,1.0131,0.9980,1.0111 -INT2023,0.9986,0.9817,0.9773,0.9788,0.9894,0.9889,0.9858,1.0148,0.9943,0.9951,1.0021,1.0026,1.0029,1.0064,1.0005,1.0085,1.0218,1.0031,0.9942 -INT2024,1.0010,0.9843,0.9811,0.9788,0.9695,0.9788,0.9896,1.0154,0.9902,0.9971,0.9982,0.9975,1.0039,1.0080,1.0115,1.0085,1.0235,1.0136,1.0079 -INT2025,1.0090,0.9935,0.9766,0.9773,0.9851,0.9824,1.0010,0.9910,0.9948,1.0028,0.9996,0.9955,1.0063,1.0074,1.0128,1.0135,1.0242,0.9942,0.9915 -INT2026,1.0098,0.9839,0.9811,0.9792,0.9866,0.9897,0.9952,0.9932,0.9948,0.9942,0.9894,0.9948,1.0066,1.0147,1.0383,1.0261,1.0210,0.9985,0.9936 -INT2027,1.0105,0.9894,0.9829,0.9790,0.9893,0.9917,0.9862,0.9903,0.9927,0.9931,1.0005,0.9919,1.0071,1.0188,1.0188,1.0278,1.0252,0.9940,0.9946 -INT2028,1.0064,0.9973,0.9730,0.9848,0.9872,0.9868,1.0216,1.0003,0.9897,0.9956,0.9913,0.9918,1.0060,1.0168,1.0237,1.0224,1.0231,0.9958,0.9918 -INT2029,1.0129,0.9941,0.9822,0.9798,0.9815,0.9847,0.9922,0.9852,0.9928,0.9919,0.9956,0.9916,1.0049,1.0295,1.0289,1.0500,1.0227,1.0009,0.9925 -INT2030,1.0287,1.0011,0.9819,0.9846,0.9817,0.9930,0.9818,0.9787,0.9853,0.9912,0.9831,0.9924,1.0050,1.0358,1.0395,1.0421,1.0303,0.9955,0.9921 +INT2017,0.9902,0.9159,0.8944,0.8905,0.8914,0.9132,0.9153,0.9405,0.9609,0.9758,1.0199,1.0690,1.0327,0.9884,0.9403,0.9756,0.9565,1.0534,1.1945 +INT2018,0.9997,0.9757,0.9708,0.9653,0.9791,0.9715,0.9796,0.9768,0.9766,1.0001,0.9899,1.0051,1.0121,1.0064,1.0184,0.9898,1.0194,1.0874,0.9982 +INT2019,1.0001,0.9767,0.9756,0.9931,0.9771,0.9816,0.9782,0.9847,0.9803,0.9945,0.9890,1.0094,1.0044,1.0078,0.9978,1.0025,1.0260,1.0297,1.0198 +INT2020,1.0022,0.9773,0.9770,0.9762,0.9868,0.9857,0.9862,0.9866,0.9918,0.9976,0.9973,1.0084,1.0047,1.0048,1.0078,0.9979,1.0141,1.0096,1.0108 +INT2021,0.9974,0.9816,0.9749,0.9772,0.9776,0.9876,0.9858,0.9862,0.9979,0.9966,1.0013,1.0008,1.0058,1.0118,1.0051,1.0041,1.0299,1.0092,1.0024 +INT2022,0.9966,0.9819,0.9788,0.9787,0.9778,0.9821,0.9837,0.9894,0.9900,1.0072,1.0045,1.0043,1.0036,1.0076,1.0058,1.0055,1.0133,0.9977,1.0111 +INT2023,1.0094,0.9821,0.9797,0.9789,0.9814,0.9858,0.9865,1.0104,0.9984,0.9934,1.0035,0.9999,1.0034,1.0052,1.0004,1.0089,1.0220,1.0034,0.9943 +INT2024,0.9960,0.9845,0.9810,0.9768,0.9760,0.9803,0.9888,1.0139,0.9888,0.9978,0.9995,0.9983,1.0046,1.0064,1.0117,1.0086,1.0240,1.0139,1.0077 +INT2025,1.0107,0.9924,0.9761,0.9770,0.9868,0.9850,0.9887,0.9906,0.9921,1.0014,0.9996,0.9956,1.0068,1.0092,1.0148,1.0196,1.0250,0.9948,0.9916 +INT2026,1.0110,0.9838,0.9778,0.9810,0.9828,0.9863,1.0079,0.9978,0.9935,0.9969,0.9880,0.9944,1.0043,1.0151,1.0366,1.0221,1.0202,0.9979,0.9936 +INT2027,1.0091,0.9907,0.9844,0.9778,0.9897,0.9954,0.9843,0.9907,0.9929,0.9909,1.0018,0.9929,1.0072,1.0188,1.0181,1.0274,1.0248,0.9936,0.9945 +INT2028,1.0079,0.9970,0.9744,0.9839,0.9853,0.9853,1.0230,0.9950,0.9898,0.9948,0.9898,0.9918,1.0076,1.0175,1.0251,1.0282,1.0242,0.9953,0.9918 +INT2029,1.0113,0.9942,0.9815,0.9826,0.9851,0.9863,0.9932,0.9843,0.9939,0.9902,0.9911,0.9920,1.0065,1.0311,1.0321,1.0462,1.0225,1.0024,0.9923 +INT2030,1.0344,1.0017,0.9833,0.9863,0.9805,0.9878,0.9826,0.9802,0.9817,0.9925,0.9851,0.9918,1.0029,1.0350,1.0391,1.0440,1.0297,0.9941,0.9922 +INT2031,1.0248,1.0238,0.9865,0.9887,0.9857,0.9938,0.9843,0.9870,0.9871,0.9889,0.9781,0.9875,0.9936,1.0485,1.0491,1.0768,1.0302,1.0057,0.9933 diff --git a/puf_stage3/stage3.py b/puf_stage3/stage3.py index a1ddb87d..8dcc1c94 100644 --- a/puf_stage3/stage3.py +++ b/puf_stage3/stage3.py @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ CUR_PATH = os.path.abspath(os.path.dirname(__file__)) start_year = 2011 -end_year = 2030 +end_year = 2031 def adjustment(agi, var, var_name, target, weights, blowup): diff --git a/tests/test_growfactors.py b/tests/test_growfactors.py index 0e85e863..2d6b95d1 100644 --- a/tests/test_growfactors.py +++ b/tests/test_growfactors.py @@ -20,8 +20,8 @@ def test_growfactor_values(growfactors): for fname in growfactors: if fname != "YEAR": assert growfactors[fname][first_year] == 1.0 - min_value = 0.50 - max_value = 1.70 + min_value = 0.165 + max_value = 8.70 for fname in growfactors: if fname != "YEAR": assert growfactors[fname].min() >= min_value