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investigator.py
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investigator.py
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#!/usr/bin/env python
import math
import pylink
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import os
import pprint
import income as myMeager
import position as anAwkward
import taxes as deathAnd
import report as explosive
import private
if float(pylink.__version__) < 0.9:
s = """
===============================================================================
=== WARNING ===
===============================================================================
TL;DR
If you aren't the type to write python code, you'll be fine, but we'd
still prefer you upgrade by running the following command:
pip install -U pylink-satcom
The full story:
Your version of pylink has a bug that includes a workaround. We
recommend upgrading to the latest version (0.9) by issuing the
following command:
pip install -U pylink-satcom
The bug pertains to initialization of the system before using the
solve_for method in the DAGModel. Bug 47 was fixed in pull request
48, and is reflected in version 0.9 of pylink.
if (!willing_to_upgrade && want_to_c0d3)
{
/*
* WORKAROUND and DESCRIPTION
*
* Follow the example provided in amt_free_iso where we override the
* thing we're solving for to be the lowest value in the search range
* (really just any value in the search range). Otherwise, what can
* happen in versions before 0.9 is that you can accidentally leave
* that value close to the correct value, but outside the search
* range, then when you run the search, it computes the initial
* best-position as being the uninitialized value it starts with
* (i.e. whatever you had it set to before running solve_for). If the
* value you have it initially set to is closer to the right number
* than any other position within the search range then it will
* improperly attribute that diff to the first value in the search
* range and return the wrong thing.
*/
}
"""
print(s)
input('Press <enter> to continue.')
from report import comma
class Investigator(object):
"""Executes a number of queries against the financial model."""
def __init__(self, model):
self.m = model
self.e = model.enum
self.rep = explosive.Report(model)
def _qst(self, num, msg):
print()
print('/%s/'%('*'*78))
print('/* %-75s*/'%('Question #%d'%num))
print('/* %-75s*/'%(msg))
print('/%s/'%('*'*78))
print()
print()
def question_1(self):
self._qst(1, "How many RSUs will be automatically withheld?")
print(
"""These numbers are for shares vesting throughout the
year, since those will affect taxes as well. Shares
available on the big day will NOT be affected by RSU
withholdings that will happen afterwards.
""")
held = m.shares_withheld_rsu_n
vested = m.shares_vested_rsu_eoy_n
if vested:
rate = round(100.0 * held / float(vested), 1)
else:
rate = -1.0
print("Withholding: %s / %s ( %5.1f %% )" % (
comma(held, dec=False, white=False),
comma(vested, dec=False, white=False),
rate))
def question_2(self):
self._qst(2, "What is the outstanding tax burden?")
self.rep.print_tax_summary()
self.rep.print_grants()
def question_3(self):
self._qst(3, "How many RSUs need to be sold to cover tax burden?")
needed = int(math.ceil(m.outstanding_taxes_usd /
float(m.ipo_price_usd)))
print("Share Price: $ %.2f" % m.ipo_price_usd)
print("Owed: $ %s" % comma(m.outstanding_taxes_usd,
dec=False, white=False))
if m.shares_vested_rsu_n:
pct = int((needed * 100) / m.shares_vested_rsu_n)
else:
pct = -1
print("Sell: %s ( %5.1f %% )" % (
comma(needed, dec=False, white=False),
pct))
def question_4(self):
self._qst(4, "How much cash if we sell it all (starting with the expensive NSOs)?")
orders = myMeager.sales_orders_all(self.m,
nso_first=True,
cheap_first=False)
self.m.override(self.e.sales_orders, orders)
self.rep.print_grants()
self.rep.print_tax_summary()
print()
print("Share Price: $ %.2f" % m.ipo_price_usd)
print("NSOs Sold: %s" % comma(m.shares_sold_nso_n,
dec=False, white=False))
print("NSO Income: $ %s" % comma(m.nso_income_usd,
dec=False, white=False))
print("ISOs Sold: %s" % comma(m.shares_sold_iso_n,
dec=False, white=False))
print("ISO Income: $ %s" % comma(m.iso_sales_income_usd,
dec=False, white=False))
print("RSUs Sold: %s" % comma(m.shares_sold_rsu_n,
dec=False, white=False))
print("RSU Income: $ %s" % comma(m.rsu_income_usd,
dec=False, white=False))
print("Sale Income: $ %s" % comma(m.rsu_income_usd
+ m.nso_income_usd
+ m.iso_sales_income_usd,
dec=False, white=False))
print("Owed: $ %s" % comma(m.outstanding_taxes_usd,
dec=False, white=False))
print("We Clear: $ %s"%comma(m.cleared_from_sale_usd, dec=False, white=False))
print()
print("This is AFTER paying all outstanding taxes.")
def question_5(self):
self._qst(5, "How much cash if we sell the RSUs?")
orders = myMeager.sales_orders_rsu(self.m)
self.m.override(self.e.sales_orders, orders)
self.rep.print_grants()
self.rep.print_tax_summary()
print()
print("We Clear: %s"%comma(m.cleared_from_sale_usd))
def amt_free_iso(self, strike=None):
m = self.m
e = m.enum
if strike is None:
g = [g for g in m.grants_lst if g.vehicle=='iso'][0]
strike = g.strike_usd
dollars = 0
amti_gap = 0
n_shares = 0
max_val = m.shares_available_iso_n*(m.ipo_price_usd-strike)
### BUG IN PYLINK ###
# https://github.com/harrison-caudill/pylink/issues/47
m.override(e.iso_exercise_income_usd, 0)
### BUG IN PYLINK ###
iso_in = m.solve_for(e.iso_exercise_income_usd,
e.amt_taxes_usd, m.fed_reg_income_taxes_usd,
0, max_val, max_val/10.0, rounds=5)
n_shares = iso_in / float(strike)
n_shares = int(min(n_shares, m.shares_vested_outstanding_iso_n))
cost = n_shares * strike
return (iso_in, n_shares, strike, cost)
def question_6(self):
self._qst(6, "If we sell it all, how many ISOs can we buy w/o AMT?")
orders = myMeager.sales_orders_all(self.m)
self.m.override(self.e.sales_orders, orders)
self.rep.print_grants()
self.rep.print_tax_summary()
print()
print("Just using the first ISO strike price we find for starters.")
cleared = m.cleared_from_sale_usd
(amt, n, strike, cost) = self.amt_free_iso()
remaining = cleared - cost
print("AMT Income Gap: $ %s" % comma(amt, dec=False, white=False))
print("Exercisable shares: %s" % comma(n, dec=False, white=False))
print("Strike Price: $ %s" % comma(strike,
dec=True, white=False))
print("Exercise Cost: $ %s" % comma(cost, dec=False, white=False))
print("Cash Cleared: $ %s" % comma(cleared,
dec=False, white=False))
print("Cash Remaining: $ %s" % comma(remaining,
dec=False, white=False))
def question_7(self):
self._qst(7, "If we sell all RSUs, how many ISOs can we buy w/o AMT?")
# Place an order for all RSUs
orders = myMeager.sales_orders_rsu(self.m)
self.m.override(self.e.sales_orders, orders)
orig = m.iso_exercise_income_usd
self.rep.print_grants()
print()
print("Just using the first ISO strike price we find for starters.")
cleared = m.cleared_from_sale_usd
(amt, n, strike, cost) = self.amt_free_iso()
remaining = cleared - cost
m.override(self.e.iso_exercise_income_usd, n*(m.ipo_price_usd-strike))
self.rep.print_tax_summary()
print("AMT Income Gap: $ %s" % comma(amt, dec=False, white=False))
print("Exercisable shares: %s" % comma(n, dec=False, white=False))
print("Strike Price: $ %s" % comma(strike,
dec=True, white=False))
print("Exercise Cost: $ %s" % comma(cost, dec=False, white=False))
print("Cash Cleared: $ %s" % comma(cleared,
dec=False, white=False))
print("Cash Remaining: $ %s" % comma(remaining,
dec=False, white=False))
m.override(self.e.iso_exercise_income_usd, orig)
def question_8(self, rsu_only=False):
augment = "RSU + NSO"
if rsu_only: augment = "RSU Only"
self._qst(8, "Basic financials vs share price (%s)" % augment)
m = self.m
e = m.enum
# Set up the loop
lo = 5.0 # low fmv
hi = 25.0 # high fmv
up = 100
orig = m.ipo_price_usd
x = []
y_gross = []
y_net = []
y_tax = []
y_amti = []
amt_exemption_rolloff = -1
amt_exemption_gone = -1
for i in range(up+1):
fmv = (i*(hi-lo)/up)+lo
x.append(fmv)
m.override(e.ipo_price_usd, fmv)
orders = myMeager.sales_orders_all(m,
nso_first=True,
cheap_first=False,
prefer_exercise=True,
restricted=True,
price=fmv)
if rsu_only:
orders = myMeager.sales_orders_rsu(self.m, price=fmv)
self.m.override(self.e.sales_orders, orders)
if (0 > amt_exemption_rolloff
and m.amt_base_income_usd > m.amt_exemption_rolloff_threshhold_usd):
amt_exemption_rolloff = fmv
if (0 > amt_exemption_gone
and m.amt_exemption_usd == 0):
amt_exemption_gone = fmv
m.override(e.iso_exercise_income_usd, 0)
m.override(e.ext_amt_income_usd, 0)
y_gross.append(m.total_income_usd-m.reg_income_usd)
y_tax.append(m.outstanding_taxes_usd)
y_amti.append(m.amt_taxable_income_usd)
y_net.append(m.cleared_from_sale_usd)
# Reset our state
m.override(e.ipo_price_usd, orig)
# Let's make our plots
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.set_ylabel('Value (USD)')
ax.plot(x, y_gross, label='Gross Sales Income (post Withholding)')
ax.plot(x, y_tax, label='Outstanding Tax Bill')
ax.plot(x, y_amti, label='AMTI')
ax.plot(x, y_net, label='Net Income from Sale')
if 0 < amt_exemption_rolloff:
ax.axvline(amt_exemption_rolloff)
ax.text(amt_exemption_rolloff,
m.amt_exemption_rolloff_threshhold_usd*1.1,
'AMT Rolloff',
rotation=45)
if 0 < amt_exemption_gone:
ax.axvline(amt_exemption_gone)
ax.text(amt_exemption_gone,
m.amt_exemption_rolloff_threshhold_usd*1.1,
'AMT Exemp. Gone',
rotation=45)
ax.grid()
fig.suptitle('Financials vs FMV (%s)'%augment)
ax.legend()
fname = 'fin_all.png'
if rsu_only: fname = 'fin_rsu.png'
path = os.path.join('.', fname)
fig.savefig(path, transparent=False, dpi=600)
def question_9(self):
self._qst(9, "What does exercisable ISOs look like vs IPO price?")
m = self.m
e = m.enum
# Set up the loop
lo = 12.0 # low fmv
hi = 15.0 # high fmv
up = 100
orig = m.ipo_price_usd
x = []
y_iso_n = []
y_gross = []
y_tax = []
y_cleared = []
y_ex_cost = []
y_rem = []
y_test = []
y_amt_diff = []
m.override(self.e.query_date, '3/15/21')
#m.override(self.e.query_date, '12/31/35')
# triggers for vertical lines
amt_exemption_rolloff = -1
amt_exemption_gone = -1
iso_saturated = -1
rolloff_val = -1
gone_val = -1
for i in range(up):
fmv = (i*(hi-lo)/up)+lo
x.append(fmv)
m.override(e.ipo_price_usd, fmv)
orders_all = myMeager.sales_orders_all(m,
nso_first=True,
cheap_first=False,
prefer_exercise=True,
restricted=False,
price=fmv)
orders_opts = myMeager.sales_orders_options(m,
nso_first=True,
cheap_first=False,
prefer_exercise=True,
restricted=False,
price=fmv)
orders_rsu = myMeager.sales_orders_rsu(m,price=fmv)
self.m.override(self.e.sales_orders, orders_all)
(amt, iso, strike, cost) = self.amt_free_iso()
if (0 > amt_exemption_rolloff
and m.amt_base_income_usd > m.amt_exemption_rolloff_threshhold_usd-10*m.ipo_price_usd
and m.amt_base_income_usd < m.amt_exemption_rolloff_threshhold_usd+10*m.ipo_price_usd):
amt_exemption_rolloff = fmv
rolloff_val = iso
if (0 > amt_exemption_gone
and 0 < amt_exemption_rolloff
and m.amt_exemption_usd == 0):
amt_exemption_gone = fmv
gone_val = iso
if ((0 > iso_saturated)
and (iso >= m.shares_vested_outstanding_iso_n)):
iso_saturated = fmv
m.override(self.e.iso_exercise_income_usd, amt)
a = m.fed_reg_income_taxes_usd
b = m.amt_taxes_usd
y_iso_n.append(iso)
cleared = m.cleared_from_sale_usd
y_gross.append(m.total_income_usd)
# y_tax.append(m.outstanding_taxes_usd)
y_cleared.append(cleared)
y_ex_cost.append(cost)
# y_rem.append(cleared - cost)
m.override(e.ipo_price_usd, orig)
# Let's make our plots
fig, ax_shares = plt.subplots()
ax_shares.set_xlabel('Share Price (USD)')
ax_shares.set_ylabel('ISOs (n)')
ax_shares.plot(x, y_iso_n,
label='AMT Free ISO Exercises',
color='tab:purple')
color = 'tab:green'
ax_dollars = ax_shares.twinx()
ax_dollars.set_ylabel('Value ($k)')
y_cleared = [x/1000 for x in y_cleared]
y_gross = [x/1000 for x in y_gross]
y_ex_cost = [x/1000 for x in y_ex_cost]
y_rem = [x/1000 for x in y_rem]
ax_dollars.set_ylim(0, y_gross[-1]*1.1)
ax_dollars.plot(x, y_gross, label='Pre-Tax Income')
ax_dollars.plot(x, y_cleared, label='Post-Tax Cash from Sale')
# ax_dollars.plot(x, y_tax, label='Taxes Owed')
# ax_dollars.plot(x, y_cleared, label='Post-Tax Income')
#ax_dollars.plot(x, y_ex_cost, label='Cost to Exercise')
# ax_dollars.plot(x, y_rem, label='Remaining')
if 0 < amt_exemption_rolloff:
ax_shares.axvline(amt_exemption_rolloff)
ax_shares.text(amt_exemption_rolloff,
rolloff_val*1.05,
'AMT Rolloff',
rotation=45)
if 0 < amt_exemption_gone:
ax_shares.axvline(amt_exemption_gone)
ax_shares.text(amt_exemption_gone,
gone_val*.95,
'AMT Exemp. Gone',
rotation=45)
if 0 < iso_saturated:
ax_shares.axvline(iso_saturated)
ax_shares.text(iso_saturated,
m.shares_vested_outstanding_iso_n*.95,
"All ISO's Available",
rotation=0)
fig.suptitle('ISO Outlook vs FMV')
ax_shares.legend(loc=3)
ax_dollars.legend()
fname = 'iso.png'
path = os.path.join('.', fname)
fig.savefig(path, transparent=False, dpi=600)
def go(self):
self.question_1()
self.question_2()
self.question_3()
self.question_4()
self.question_5()
self.question_6()
self.question_7()
self.question_8()
self.question_8(rsu_only=True)
self.question_9()
print()
if __name__ == '__main__':
m = private.MODEL
dixon_hill = Investigator(m)
dixon_hill.go()