VSCM (Very Simple Climate Model)

A very simple multiple linear regression model of the Earth's climate in Python.

Features

• CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in PPM
• CH4 concentration in the atmosphere in PPB
• SO2 emissions per year in million tonnes
• Aerosols in the atmosphere
• Solar irradiance

Predicting:

• Average global temperature anomaly

Data sources:

• CO2: https://ourworldindata.org/atmospheric-concentrations
• CH4: https://ourworldindata.org/atmospheric-concentrations
• SO2: https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution-does-it-get-worse-before-it-gets-better
• Aerosols: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/strataer/
• Solar irradiance: https://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/historical_tsi/
• Temperature Dataset 1: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly
• Temperature Dataset 2: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/
• Temperature Dataset 3: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/ann/1/1880-2021

Other assumptions:

• Pre-industrial level of CO2: 280 PPM
• Pre-industrial level of Methane: 700 PPB
• GWP of CHP: 25