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Ecowatt-QC

Like the Écowatt website (https://www.monecowatt.fr/) developed by RTE in France, this repository humbly attempts to achieve the same goal for the province of Quebec (as a preliminary prototype). Using open data from Hydro-Québec and Weather Canada, the Streamlit app developed based on the content of this repository presents the current situation on the Quebec power grid, as well as a forecast for the next 24 hours.
The web app is online: https://ecowatt-qc.streamlit.app/

Data

Here are all the data of interest for this project presented in bullet points herebelow. To be noted: some of these data are not currently used but could be in the future.

Methods

Basic method to assess grid stress

  • Indicator for the current situation:
    • Current demand > 95% of HQ production capacity --> Red light
    • Current demand > 80% of HQ production capacity --> Orange light
    • Otherwise --> Green light
  • Indicator for the forecasted situations (next 24 hours):
    • Demand estimated by the model forecasting the 95th percentile > HQ production capacity --> Red light
    • Demand estimated by the model forecasting the 99th percentile > HQ production capacity --> Orange light
    • Otherwise --> Green light

Method to forecast next 24-hour electricity demand

  • ML model: gradient-boosted decision trees
  • X data:
    • Weather: for each of the 6 cities (Montréal, Québec, Gatineau, Sherbrooke, Saguenay and Trois-rivières), 6 inputs: temperature statistics (min, mean and max) of the last and next 24 hours (36 inputs)
    • Beginning hour number of the forecast (1 input)
    • Beginning number of weekday of the forecast (1 input)
    • Working days (previous, current and next day - 3 inputs)
    • Total number of inputs: 36 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 41 inputs
  • Y data:
    • Electricity demand differences between the next and last 24 hours (24 outputs)
    • Total number of outputs: 24

Method for deployment

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Ecowatt made in QC

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