CBO June 2024 update

[bodiyang]

This PR is to update Tax-Calculator for the June 2024 CBO baseline update.

This is the next step to the Tax-Data CBO update, which updates Tax-Calculator with the new files of PUF weights, ratios.

[codecov]

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All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests ✅

Project coverage is 99.42%. Comparing base (3be2cc3) to head (34c6842).

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[martinholmer]

@bodiyang, I have two questions to start with:

(1) If you are updating using the new CBO 2024+ projections, why are the historical results as far back as 2021 changing? Why are you revising HISTORY?

(2) If you are updating using the new CBO 2024+ projections, why are the 2024+ contents
of the growfactors.csv file not changing?

[bodiyang]

@martinholmer

For (1): It is because CBO themselves revised the baseline value for the previous years in June 2024 publication.

Same can be seen in Tax-data's CBO_baseline.csv. This file shows the baseline difference between June 2024 publication and Feb 2024 publication.

[bodiyang]

@martinholmer

I'm also having recheck on growth factors now. Will send updates later

[martinholmer]

@bodiyang said in PR #2831:

For (1): It is because CBO themselves revised the baseline value for the previous years in June 2024 publication.

OK. What is the answer to my question (2)?

[bodiyang]

@martinholmer @jdebacker

There has been a new update from BLS for CPI in September, which will affect the growth factor, baseline, ... files. I will make another update in Tax-Data and incorporate the change in this Tax-Calculator PR.

[martinholmer]

@bodiyang said:

There has been a new update from BLS for CPI in September, which will affect the growth factor

I don't understand. Are you saying CBO did not change its economic projections in the June report? Why are you planning to change only the CPI projection?

Also, if you change the CPI projection in growfactors.csv, be sure to do this as described in taxdata issue #444.

[bodiyang]

I don't understand. Are you saying CBO did not change its economic projections in the June report? Why are you planning to change only the CPI projection?

CBO changed its economic projections in the June report and it has already been reflected in this June report.

The "CBO update process" in Tax-Data actually also includes the updates from BLS. details can be found at updatecbo.py

I completed the CBO update process in Tax-Data in August, but I just noticed that BLS has made an update in CPI (which will affect the CPIM in CBO_baseline.csv) in September. So I decide to make an update for this.

And thanks for bringing up the taxdata issue #444 , I will do the update from there.

[martinholmer]

@bodiyang said:

CBO changed its economic projections in the June report and it has already been reflected in this June report.

This sentence makes no sense to me. When I look at taxdata growfactors.csv it has not changed in eight months even though CBO has new June economic projections. Why are you not using the new June CBO economic projections?

[bodiyang]

@bodiyang said:

CBO changed its economic projections in the June report and it has already been reflected in this June report.

This sentence makes no sense to me. When I look at taxdata growfactors.csv it has not changed in eight months even though CBO has new June economic projections. Why are you not using the new June CBO economic projections?

1. Yes, I am using the new CBO June 2024 update
2. I am currently working on another update in Tax-Data, which will reflect CBO June 2024 update as well as recent BLS update ~ This update will show change in growth factor. I haven't put it up on github yet, but already get it locally.
3. Last Tax-Data PR: This PR reflect the CBO June 2024, resulting in change of weight files, ratio files ... But it does not result in the change in growth factors. ~~ I didn't conduct a thorough check the reason why growth factor changed there (Maybe the change of baseline is not large enough / or Maybe there is a mistake). However, the update process follow the standard procedure of CBO update, and the produced files passed all tests in Tax-Data & Tax-Calculator. And the projection result looks good, as in this new report.

In a conclusion, I will make another update in Tax-Data with the new changes, including growth factors, soon. Would make sense to wait a lit bit as I'm finalizing it.

[bodiyang]

@jdebacker @martinholmer This PR is ready for review.

Please refer to the new report for updated projections.