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Simple calculator that reveals the chances of winning in a blackjack game.

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krisluczka/Blackjack-probabilistic-calculator

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Blackjack probabilistic calculator

A simple calculator that evaluates the chances of winning a given position in blackjack. Due to the fact that double down, split and insurance are purely gambling decisions based on one's own sense of luck (or they come down to the basic hit and stand), the project calculates the probability of winning if we stand or if we hit.

The method

Randomizing games after hitting

Game simulation after a hit decision requires drawing a future decision (hitting or standing). For this reason, the odds are defined as follows:

  • 4 to 11 points - 100%
  • 12 points - 64%
  • 13 points - 57%
  • 14 points - 50%
  • 15 points - 43%
  • 16 points - 36%
  • 17 points - 29%
  • 18 points - 22%
  • 19 points - 14%
  • 20 points - 8%
  • 21 points - 0%

This is due to the fact that for points 4-11, no card drawn will end the game, for points 12, 9 out of a possible 14 cards will not end the game, etc. Randomly generated decisions (50/50) do not provide measurable results because they omit the element of mathematical possibility of calculating the final result.

Randomizing games after standing

Game simulation after a stand decision does not require randomizing player decisions. As long as dealer has below 17 points he must draw another card. Otherwise, he must stop. Thus player can win only by having more score or by dealer overflowing his deck.

Result interpretation

After the simulation, percentage results are presented, indicating how many games on average you would win after making a given decision in this very position.