Space–time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro
Authors: Laís Picinini Freitas, Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz, Rachel Lowe, Marilia Sá Carvalho
Publication: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2019.1867
Dengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades, but vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and were not sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015-2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic. Understanding the behaviour of these diseases in a triple epidemic scenario is a necessary step for devising better interventions for prevention and outbreak response. We applied scan statistic analysis to detect spatio-temporal clustering for each disease separately and for all three simultaneously.The use of space-time cluster detection can direct intensive interventions to high-risk locations in a timely manner.