project alpha-discovery-workflow

Attempts to disprove the trading strategy through introducing counter examples.
Needs some improvements on realistic backtesting.
Features and results doesn't work but the workflow in general might be useful.

Steps to install some dependencies

virtualenv -p python3.9 env && source env/bin/activate
pip install -r requirements.txt
pip install "git+https://github.com/richmanbtc/crypto_data_fetcher.git@v0.0.18#egg=crypto_data_fetcher"
pip install TA-lib --no-binary TA-lib

Feature generation

python generate_features.py btcusdt

Resources and references

- https://twitter.com/lopezdeprado/status/1148534576874184704
- https://twitter.com/lopezdeprado/status/1270131167140945924?lang=en
- https://artifact-research.com/prob-prog/probabilistic-programming-in-finance-a-robust-sharpe-ratio-estimate/
- https://artifact-research.com/edu/preview/probabilistic-sharpe-ratio/
- https://forum.numer.ai/t/probabilistic-sharpe-ratio/446
- https://portfoliooptimizer.io/blog/the-probabilistic-sharpe-ratio-bias-adjustment-confidence-intervals-hypothesis-testing-and-minimum-track-record-length/
- https://portfoliooptimizer.io/blog/the-probabilistic-sharpe-ratio-hypothesis-testing-and-minimum-track-record-length-for-the-difference-of-sharpe-ratios/
- http://datagrid.lbl.gov/backtest/backtest.php
- https://stefan-jansen.github.io/machine-learning-for-trading/08_ml4t_workflow/
- https://github.com/stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading/tree/main/08_ml4t_workflow
- https://quantdare.com/probabilistic-sharpe-ratio/
- https://quantdare.com/deflated-sharpe-ratio-how-to-avoid-been-fooled-by-randomness/
- https://gmarti.gitlab.io/qfin/2018/05/30/deflated-sharpe-ratio.html
- https://github.com/rubenbriones/Probabilistic-Sharpe-Ratio
- https://mathinvestor.org/2022/01/how-backtest-overfitting-in-finance-leads-to-false-discoveries/
- https://mathinvestor.org/2022/02/backtest-overfitting-and-the-post-hoc-probability-fallacy/
- https://github.com/esvhd/pypbo