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HorizonScenarios
Michael Reilly edited this page Feb 5, 2019
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- Get some different outputs
We can implement changing preferences in a few ways (most useful first):
- We can change the price shifters to make housing more expensive in the areas we want to shift housing preference toward: Do this by changing price shifters table in /Data
- We can modify the coefficients on the the hedonic models so that prices are higher in areas we want to shift the housing OR firms preferences toward: Do this by manually decreasing or increasing the coefficient values in the model configuration tables
- We can add large projects to the Development Projects list that shift growth to those locations
- We can modify the coefficients in the demand side models (i.e., hh and employment Location Choice Models)
- prox to jobs and central employment concentrations in hlcm (currently attractors for lower income and repellent for higher)
- dis to BART and central employment concentrations
- prox to same-sector jobs and employment concentrations in elcm (currently attractor and mixed)
- office: distance to best BART and distance to central employment concentrations (currently both negative)
- 2015 STATIC HH: 39/27/20/13; EMP:
- HH pct of growth: 52/22/15/12 AND EMP: 58/24/14/4
- CURRENT BEST RUN % HH GROWTH 56/20/15/9 AND % EMP GROWTH 75/14/05/06 [OLD LOGSUMS: HH GROWTH 60/16/12/11 AND % EMP GROWTH 73/14/06/07]
- CURRENT MODS: made dev proj more like 3, halved importance of regional dis in nrh, office near, lrt [halved bart1, zeroed out stanford, halved emb again] also elcm
- OVERALL: more HHs in big 3/core, more emp in core/suburbs/exurbs)
- 4.04m HHs (so 610K more units)
- SLR 1ft, Earthquake 2035: Hazards Models
- Greater pref for urban housing: shift lc vars inward and toward bart; price shift eastbay; add all opp sites
- Greater pref for dispersed employment centers: shift emp lc vars outward and less clustered; manual conversion of outer malls to office
- Telecommute 30%: take jobs out of control totals
- Ecommerce 50% (so five times today): shift retail jobs down; increase logistics/tech; shift retail rents down; add logistics at malls?
- AV 95% (BUT with a lot of sharing): dealt with by expanding nearby urban for super TNC like landscape
- HSR, ARail/Bus, freight drones: additional attraction to HSR for office and transit for all
- Limited interregional
- STATIC SHARES HH: 42/25/19/14
- CURRENT BEST RUN % HH GROWTH 55/14/17/15 AND % EMP GROWTH 106/-12/-06/13 [OLD LOGSUMS: HH GROWTH 66/12/10/12 AND % EMP GROWTH 105/-9/-02/07 (r16)]
- OVERALL: more HHs in Big3/core
- 3.20m HHs (so 230K fewer units)
- SLR 3ft, Earthquake 2035: Hazards Models
- Greater pref for urban housing: shift lc vars inward and toward bart; price shift SF, eastbay
- Telecommute 15%: take jobs out of control totals
- Ecommerce 20% (so two times today)
- AV 10%
- Abuses
- CURRENT BEST RUN % HH GROWTH 57/17/14/11 AND % EMP GROWTH 62/29/05/04 (r8)
- CURRENT MODS: dropped most central res opp sites in dev proj
- OVERALL: more HHs in suburbs/exurbs, more emp in big3/SV/Berkeley/Peninsula
- 4.77m HHs (PBA40 was 3.43m by 2040, so 1.34m more units)
- SLR 2ft, Earthquake 2035: Hazards Models
- Greater pref for dispersed housing: shift lc vars outward and away from bart; price shift concord, outer SV, northbay; manual conversion of outer malls to MFD_
- Greater pref for urban employment: shift emp lc vars inward and more clustered; shift price vars if needed
- Ecommerce 50% (so five times today): shift retail jobs down; increase logistics/tech; shift retail rents down; add logistics at malls?
- AV 75% (BUT little sharing): dealt with in the housing and job vars
- Hyperloops, Abuses, drones, helicoptors
- Higher interregional
- 240K annual immigrants to BA